UFC 121

[Guest Rikidozan]

UFC 121, October 23

Location; Honda Center, California

Main card

Brock Lesnar© vs. Cain Velasquez- Heavyweight title

Matt Hamill vs. Tito Ortiz- 205lbs

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann- 170lbs

Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago- 170lbs

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Brendan Schaub- 215lbs

Prelims

Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen- 185lbs

Tod Duffee vs. Jon Madsen- 215lbs

Patrick Cote vs. Tom Lawlor- 185lbs

Paul Taylor vs. Sam Stout- 155lbs

 

I assume there’s more fight to be signed, but this show will do at least one-million buys, probably more actually. Lesnar/Velasquez will have the ‘big-fight’ feel for sure, maybe even more so than Carwin/Lesnar, as Velasquez will probably be a bigger test for Brock than Carwin, despite Carwin almost stopping Lesnar. It’s also great to see Shields make his UFC debut; taking on Kampmann isn’t the same as taking on GSP, but still, it’s no squash match by any means.

Edited August 14, 2010 by Paul

[Guest JC]

I think Cain is an incredibly solid fighter but he'll need everything to go right. Brock probably feels invincible after taking Carwin's first round and then going on to get the sub - could work to his advantage or disadvantage to be fair.

 

I think Brock (like his last fight) should be the guy to put your money on but Cain will be a test, no question.

 

Be nice to see Gonzaga back in the cage, not so much Tito Ortiz.

 

Nice to see Todd Duffee rightly placed on the card the big meat-head loser. :lol

[Guest Dusty Finish]

Meh, stupid board crash. I really don't want to type out that lost 4 paragraph analysis of the main I did again, so I'll do the bare-bones summary.....

 

Velasquez: better technical boxer than Carwin, less KO power, more recent topline NCAA experience against better opposition, low centre of gravity, neither chin nor tank in question, won't waste strikes if he gets top position.

 

Lesnar: reaction to getting hit isn't great, may stay outside the pocket to shoot, hence struggle to get the takedown if Carwin's easy first round stuffs are anything to go by. Best chance of victory is to engage clinch & muscle Velasquez down, be patient & take opportunities to posture up & work GnP.

 

Prediction: I'll be mildly surprised if Cain doesn't win. Not a slight on Lesnar, but the man has been bred to be Heavyweight Champion. Velasquez by TKO, late 3rd/early 4th.

[Guest Sparrow]

reaction to getting hit isn't great

 

I would have to disagree with you there, surely if the Carwin fight showed us anything it is that Brock can take a punch.

 

I am going for Lesnar all the way.

 

Also as he is one of my favourite fighters I am going for a Hamill win.

[Guest JC]

I'd argue his determination and will to stay busy is more how he got himself out of the predicament with Carwin rather than his 'chin.'

 

The solid connections Carwin did get in affected Lesnar badly (how he got put on his ass) but on the ground, he simply protected himself well and avoided further damage.

 

I'll admit, the fact he didn't fall like a stack of cards after one shot shows he has a decent chin but the idea that he has a granite one is hardly conclusive for me.

 

Opinions and that, heh.

[ShaolinHandLock 73]

I may as well do some predictions. :)

 

Main card

 

Brock Lesnar© vs. Cain Velasquez- Heavyweight title

Matt Hamill vs. Tito Ortiz- 205lbs

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann- 170lbs

Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago- 170lbs

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Brendan Schaub- 215lbs

 

Prelims

Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen- 185lbs

Tod Duffee vs. Jon Madsen- 215lbs

Patrick Cote vs. Tom Lawlor- 185lbs

Paul Taylor vs. Sam Stout- 155lbs

 

I really didn't want to predict against Lesnar, but.....

[Guest Dusty Finish]

I would have to disagree with you there, surely if the Carwin fight showed us anything it is that Brock can take a punch.

 

I clarified in my "lost" post, the ability to take a shot and reaction to being hit are two completely different things. Lesnar is built to take shots- one look at his neck says all you need to know. When Carwin clipped his temple with that first standing shot, Lesnar's immediate reaction was to back up and concede ground fast; it was clear that it rattled him. See also, Lesnar's comments after being tagged by Mir, who isn't in the same stratosphere as his subsequent two opponents, standup wise. Carwin is probably the most powerful one-punch artist in MMA, but as a technical boxer, Velasquez is far superior.

 

With regard to the multitude of punches when Carwin held top position (and this is a staunch criticism of Carwin, not Lesnar): Carwin got carried away by his position, similarly to Lesnar in the first Mir fight, and wasted so many shots it was untrue. Count how many actually found their way through, and how many hit nothing but tree-trunk-esque forearm. In my opinion, Carwin didn't have enough confidence in his ability to control a wrestler of Lesnar's calibre from top, and was desperate to finish as quickly as possible. This is a problem I don't forsee Velasquez having if he ends up in a similar position.

[Paul 584]

You know, last month I was concerned that Brock would lose, but the more of Cains old fights I watch the more I think Brock will squeeze by.

 

Cain couldnt control Kongo and Rothwell with his wrestling, so I cant see him managing to outwrestle Brock. And his strikes on Kongo didnt seem to be landing as hard as people make out.

 

Between those two fights I find Brock has more upsides, as long as his reaction to getting punched has been worked on.

[Guest JC]

Brock Lesnar is quite obviously still the favourite to retain the strap in this fight, purely because of his animalistic nature. Watching the PrimeTime clips, I see a man leaner, more aggressive and completely defiant of letting his weaknesses undo his strengths.

 

However, I do believe, that in a technical aspect, Cain Velasquez is a guy who has the skills, if deployed correctly and efficiently, to knock Brock out. More dangerous than Mir and more than Carwin.

 

But again, I'll stick with Brock despite this. He's a man who looks like he'll not be stopped unless he's literally unconscious. Cain has a big task ahead of him despite the advantages he may have.

[Guest John Hancock]

This will be the first pay-per-view I'm paying money for since UFC 100, so congratulations UFC on that.

 

God damn I want Velasquez to win, but, I'm still yet to really see a convincing way to beat Brock Lesnar. As has been pointed out before, on size alone, he's the equivalent of a lightweight fighting a middleweight, which is pretty ridiculous, so even when he's out skilled, which I genuinely think he is in the fight, he has the ability to just throw himself at people like a big fat bear and lay on them for 25 minutes. I think Velasquez's only chance is to keep it standing, and try for the knock out or, at least, for the decision.

 

Brock Lesnar© vs. Cain Velasquez- Heavyweight title

Matt Hamill vs. Tito Ortiz- 205lbs

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann- 170lbs

Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago- 170lbs

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Brendan Schaub- 215lbs

[Guest Frank Botch]

Anyone catching the Primetime specials? This dude Lesnar is ridiculous, pretty much killing everyone in training. He's also working on an awesome beard, which is the most important information to come out of the show.

 

Also I believe Cain has a Mexican heritage, it's mentioned one or a thousand times.

[Guest John Hancock]

The amount they've gone on about it, I assumed Cain was actually FROM Mexico. Talk about pandering to a minority audience eh?

[Guest Jimmy Redman]

I dont blame them, they're trying to do something since Cain is boring as hell.

[Guest Rikidozan]

Hancock...I wouldn't call that "pandering", I'd call it being inclusive. That was a dickish comment to make. Also the Hispanic/Latino population will out-number any other in the US within the next 50 years.

 

On the PrimeTime specials...they're drawing great numbers, which would indicate a huge buyrate. At least a million for this show, but I doubt it'll beat UFC 100s 1.7 million record.

[Guest Jimmy Redman]

It IS pandering though. Its not dickish, just realistic. The guy is American and cant even speak Spanish properly. But its what they have to do, they need to give him some kind of hook since he's a bland dude who is in a PPV main with Brock and could win the HW Title, and as you say, Hispanics is a really good idea.

[Guest John Hancock]

It IS pandering though. Its not dickish, just realistic. The guy is American and cant even speak Spanish properly. But its what they have to do, they need to give him some kind of hook since he's a bland dude who is in a PPV main with Brock and could win the HW Title, and as you say, Hispanics is a really good idea.

 

Exactly, how's it dickish? He's an American, born in America, who's lived in America all his life, and speaks imperfect Spanish as a second language, and they're billing him as potentially, "The first ever Mexican heavyweight champion". What's that if it's not pandering? Do you think, if I won the title, they'd call me "The first Dutch champion"? I've never lived there and barely speak the language, but, hey, one of my parents is from there, so it would be "dickish" not to right?

 

I'm also assuming you don't really know what the word pandering means, because you've listed the size of the Mexican-American population as some sort of counter point, where as, to pretty much everyone with common sense, the size of the Mexican-American population, especially in California, where the PPV's being held, is EXACTLY why pandering to the Latino audience is a very, very good business strategy for the UFC.

 

As Jimmy said, it's the right thing to do, because it's smart business, but if you thing it's ANYTHING other than pandering to a ethnic audience, you're blind.

Edited October 18, 2010 by John Hancock

[Guest The Beltster]

Brock's beard is nothing less than mighty.

[Paul 584]

Exactly, how's it dickish? He's an American, born in America, who's lived in America all his life, and speaks imperfect Spanish as a second language, and they're billing him as potentially, "The first ever Mexican heavyweight champion". What's that if it's not pandering?

 

 

Yeah, if Cain counts as Mexican then so should Ricco Rodriguez.

 

Brock's beard is nothing less than mighty.

 

Amen brother!

 

Its a true 'mountain man who hunts bears with his hands and eats them raw' type beard.

[Guest JC]

Word.

 

I was debating which fighter would win but now UFC 121, taking place in Broc-tober, with Brock looking lean and mean as ****...WITH THAT BEARD.

 

Brock's beard via decision alone.

[Guest John Hancock]

I'm predicting choke out, vie the beard crawling down Cain's throat until he suffocates.